The travel and tourism arrivals are predicted to shrink by 1.1% in 2009 but there will be some slight growth next year, said the market research firm.
The Forecast Restatement - Travel and Tourism in a Crisis report was unveiled by Euromonitor at World Travel Market’s inaugural WTM Vision Conference.
Hotels were originally forecast to grow by 4.8% in 2009 but are now expected to shrink by -3.6%. Air travel was originally forecast to grow by 5.3% but will now decrease by -2.3%.
Arrivals are now predicted to grow by 2.2% in 2010, compared to the June 2008 forecast of 5.9%. Departures are forecast to grow by 1.8% compared to the previous forecast of 5.4%.
Hotels are predicted to grow by nearly 1% compared to the previously forecasted 5.2%, while air travel is forecast to grow by 1% compared to the June 2008 prediction of 5.2%.
Domestic holidays, budget and mid priced hotels and low-cost carriers are expected to benefit as cost-conscious consumers change their spending patterns.
Moderating the session about Euromonitor, Frank Barrett, Mail on Sunday travel editor, commented: ‘The glory days of high annual growth of 5% are gone.'
The World Travel & Tourism Council has also had to revise all its forecasts in light of the sudden recession.
Amir Girgis, WTTC economist, said however that the long-term prospects were better, with 4% annual growth rates for travel and tourism globally between 2010-2019.
The sector’s economic GDP will fall 3% in 2009 but rise marginally by 0.25% in 2010.
‘It will be a V shaped recovery, depending on how quickly we get out of this crisis. But longterm prospects look quite healthy,’ he told the conference in London.
He attributed the future growth prospects to the rising demand for travel from countries such as Brazil and China, plus investment in regions such as the Middle East.